Market Review 25th October 2023
Simplify the craziness
DAILY REVIEW
N
2 min read
The stock market experienced a turbulent day as technology shares took a hit, leading the Nasdaq into correction territory. This downturn followed mixed earnings reports from tech giants Alphabet and Microsoft. Concurrently, longer-term Treasury yields resumed their upward trajectory, raising concerns about future inflation and the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest-rate decisions. In this article, we delve into the key factors driving these market movements and the broader implications for investors.
Stock Market Performance:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: The DJIA lost 105.45 points, a 0.3% decrease, closing at 33,035.93. This marks the fifth decline in six trading days.
S&P 500: The SPX experienced its most significant single-day drop since September 2023, shedding 60.91 points, a 1.4% decline, to finish at 4,186.77.
Nasdaq Composite: The COMP plummeted 318.65 points, a 2.4% decrease, settling at 12,821.22, pushing it into correction territory. This represents a 10.7% decrease from its local high in July 2023.
Mixed Earnings Impact:
The technology sector faced considerable pressure on this particular day, primarily due to Alphabet Inc.'s disappointing third-quarter earnings report. Alphabet reported lackluster performance in its cloud-computing business, causing its stock to plummet by 9.5%. This marked the worst single-day performance for Alphabet since March 2020.
Furthermore, the S&P 500's communication services sector, which includes Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Netflix, saw a substantial decline of 5.9% in a single day. The poor performance of Alphabet's stock overshadowed Microsoft's more positive results, which surprised investors with a 28% constant-currency growth in its Azure cloud-computing business.
Earnings Season Insights:
The earnings season had initially shown promise, with 81.4% of S&P 500 companies exceeding analyst expectations, a notably higher percentage compared to previous quarters since 1994. Despite this, experts urge investors to consider the broader economic context.
Tim Urbanowicz, head of research and investment strategy at Innovator ETFs, emphasized that earnings news must be viewed in the context of the macroeconomic environment. He noted that historical data suggests that interest rate hikes tend to affect earnings with a lag of about two years, implying that earnings might not reach their bottom before the Fed concludes its rate-hike cycle.
Treasury Yields and Market Sentiment:
One of the major concerns for investors is the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.952%. Earlier in the week, it even breached 5% for the first time in 16 years. This uptick in bond yields is contributing to uncertainty in the market, prompting investors to take profits from tech stocks, which have enjoyed significant gains this year.
Additionally, weak demand in a recent auction of five-year Treasury notes has raised concerns about a potential supply and demand imbalance in the bond market, further affecting market sentiment.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the stock market witnessed significant declines, primarily driven by the disappointing earnings report from Alphabet and concerns about rising Treasury yields. Despite the strong start to the earnings season, investors are reminded that market dynamics are heavily influenced by broader economic factors. As the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decisions and inflation data loom on the horizon, the market's future remains uncertain, with investors closely monitoring these developments for guidance on their investment strategies.

