Market Review 25th June 2024

Simplify the craziness

DAILY REVIEW

3 min read

Nasdaq Composite Surges: The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.3%, rebounding after three days of declines, thanks to Nvidia’s 6.8% increase. The index reached 17,717.65.
S&P 500’s Slight Gain: The S&P 500 added 0.4%, closing at 5,469.30. This marks its first gain after three days of declines.
Dow Jones Drops: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 299.05 points, or 0.8%, to 39,112.16, marking its worst day since May 30.
Nvidia's Influence: Nvidia’s 6.8% surge played a pivotal role, significantly affecting the market dynamics. Without Nvidia's rebound, the S&P 500 would have ended in the red.
Sector Performance:
- Real Estate and Materials sectors fell by 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively.
- Carnival Corp surged 8.7% after raising its 2024 profit forecast.
- SolarEdge Technologies plummeted 20.6% due to customer bankruptcy concerns.

Fed’s Hawkish Stance: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman emphasized the possibility of another rate hike if inflation stalls, hinting at a potential rate increase if inflation does not continue to decrease.
- Bowman highlighted, “I remain willing to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at a future meeting should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”
Economic Indicators:
- Upcoming data includes the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) release, crucial for determining future monetary policy.
- Consumer confidence showed a slight decline, with upper-income households showing resilience.
Rate Cut Speculation: Market sentiment is mixed, with traders betting on a rate cut by September. Historically, the S&P 500 has dropped an average of 20% in the 250 days following the first rate cut since 1974.

Bond Yields Stabilize: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield settled at 4.237%, slightly down from 4.248% the previous day. The yield has been declining from its late April peak above 4.70%, alleviating some pressure on stocks.
Impact on Markets: Lower yields have bolstered hopes for a Fed rate cut, aiding the stock market’s recovery.

Crude Oil Decline:
- West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 0.95% to $80.76 a barrel.
- Brent crude dropped 2.1% to $84.97 a barrel.
Gold Prices: Gold decreased by 0.42%, closing at $2,323.60 per ounce.
Bitcoin Rebounds: Bitcoin surged 2.7%, nearing $62,000, recovering some of its recent losses.

Carnival Corp: Up 8.7% after raising its profit forecast, citing strong cruise demand.
Rivian Automotive: Shares soared 50% after Volkswagen AG’s $1 billion investment announcement, bolstering Rivian’s cash reserves and production capabilities.
Pool Corp: Dropped 8% after revising its financial forecast downward, citing a slowdown in pool construction.

Bitcoin’s Performance:
- Bitcoin traded at $61,993, recovering after a 7% drop.
- The German government's Bitcoin sales and Mt. Gox repayments are not expected to significantly impact the market, as most of the sell pressure is already priced in.
Ethereum ETF News:
- VanEck has filed Form 8-A for its spot Ether ETF with the SEC, potentially launching by July 2, 2024. This marks a significant step towards approval.

Yahoo Finance - Stocks Mixed as Market Awaits Key Data
Morning Brief Video Transcript - Morning Brief: Stock Futures Mixed
Dow Jones Market Data - Dow Logs 5-Day Win Streak
MarketWatch - Affirm Holdings Soars
Baker Hughes Data - Oil and Gas Rigs at Lowest in 2.5 Years
FxPro - Crude Price Rebound Reflects Apathy of US Producers
Bitcoin Price Analysis - Bitcoin’s Midyear Selloff
Bloomberg - VanEck Files Form 8-A for Spot Ether ETF
Cointelegraph - German Government’s Bitcoin Sales
Galaxy Digital Research - Mt. Gox Bitcoin Impact Analysis
Rivian and Volkswagen Partnership - Rivian Secures $1 Billion Investment from Volkswagen
Carnival’s Profit Forecast Update - Carnival Raises 2024 Profit Outlook
S&P 500 Real Estate and Materials Sectors - Sector Performance Analysis